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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 17th, 2015–Feb 18th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

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Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

The current ridge of high pressure will break down on Wednesday. By late in the day, a weak pacific system will bring light snowfall which should last until Thursday evening (up to 10cm in total). On Friday, we can expect clearing skies as the ridge is expected to rebuild. Winds are forecast to be strong from the southwest with the pulse of moisture, and then ease to moderate and northwesterly by Friday. Freezing levels should hover around 1200m on Wednesday and Thursday, and then drop to about 800m on Friday

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. There will likely be a shift to new wind slab activity with snow and wind forecast for late Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

At alpine elevations, generally light amounts of dry snow overlie a hard crust which extends to about 1800m. The recent accumulations may exist as a wind slab in high elevation lee terrain. The melt-freeze crust is adding considerable strength to the snowpack, although warming may weaken the crust allowing for surface avalanches to fail more easily. About 15 to 30cm below the surface you may find weak surface hoar which was buried on February 10th. Although recent warming may have destroyed this potentially weak layer in some areas, I'd dig down and test for this layer at upper elevations where colder temperatures may have allowed for this weakness to persist. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled. Further north in the region, freezing levels are reported to have been lower during recent storms. In these areas deeper persistent weaknesses are more likely to exist.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Light amounts of new snow and strong southwest winds are forecast to form new wind slabs in lee terrain. Watch for conditions that change throughout the day on Wednesday.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3