Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 24th, 2012 10:14AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mpeter, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Expect an unsettled day, with winds turning northeasterly and some isolated flurries giving another 10cm. Temperatures could climb to -10. Sunday & Monday: Mostly clear skies with light northerly winds and cold temperatures. Clouds will begin to build late in the day on Monday as the next system arrives.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches up to size 3.0 and ridder triggered up to 1.5 have been observed.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow has fallen over the past week, and sits on a variety of old surfaces. These surfaces include: melt-freeze crusts that exist on all aspects at lower elevations and on south-facing slopes higher up and well-settled powder on shaded aspects in the alpine. Weak surface hoar crystals (size 3-4mm) are sandwiched between the old surfaces and the newer snow and have recently shown easy compression test results. The distribution of the surface hoar seems to be up to treeline on all aspects and on sheltered features in the alpine. This upper snow pack structure will be the big thing to watch as the overlying slab develops. I expect to see increasing reactivity in the surface hoar interface. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.There is a Special Public Avalanche Warning in place for most of the province, including the Northwest Inland area.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Increasing winds and new snow through the forecast period will form wind slabs on lee slopes and terrain features. Expect to see more widespread loading due to changing winds.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 6

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Forecast snow and wind will increase the soft slab load on the variable buried weak layers. I suspect this to be a concern as these layers reach their "Tipping Point" where natural and human triggered avalanche activity will increase.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Feb 25th, 2012 8:00AM