Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2019–Jan 15th, 2019

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Keep an eye on how hot the slopes are getting from the warm Baja air and the sunshine. Natural activity will peak with this input of heat.

Weather Forecast

Warm and sunny in the alpine while cool with possible clouds in the valley bottoms. A warm flow of air from the south has jacked up temp's in the alpine, while trapping cold air in the valley bottoms. Sun, alpine high of 1*C, and calm winds today. Tuesday will see freezing levels drop to 1400m, cloudy periods, and light SE winds.

Snowpack Summary

Above freezing temp's has accelerated slab development at tree-line, as well as helped create a surface crust, especially on steep solar aspects. Isolated wind slabs exist in the alpine in exposed areas and near ridge lines on all aspects. The Jan 2 freezing rain crust is down ~90cm. The Nov 21st interface is now 1-2m in deep.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches sz 2-3 were observed from S and SW aspects yesterday with the intense sunshine and above freezing levels around tree-line elevations. Frequent Flyer left debris across the skin-track up Connaught Creek. Snowballing and pinwheels were seen rolling from steep solar aspects as the sun cooked these slopes in the afternoon.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Warm temps and strong sunshine on steep solar aspects will cause natural avalanches at the warmest part of the day.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Surface slabs exist at all elevations and aspects, but may be more likely to trigger on solar aspects with the warm temp's and intense sunshine.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A recent size 3.5 skier triggered avalanche in Camp West path ran on this layer. The likelihood of triggering deeper layers increases with warming air temperatures. Cornices, which are also temperature sensitive, can certainly trigger this problem.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5