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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2022–Dec 17th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Any avalanche that initiates will likely involve the entire snowpack. Stick to conservative terrain and be patient as we wait for the snowpack to settle out this winter.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Skiing in the Murray moraines area on Friday we found around 100-125cm of snow in treeline areas. In general, there is a weak layer at the midpack down 60-80cm. In some areas at treeline and below this is a surface hoar layer and in other areas its the main interface where the upper snowpack is overlying the basal facets. The take away is that regardless of the interface exactly, its failing in snowpack tests in the moderate range in very sudden collapses. Whumpfing is common these days which indicates that the layer if failing with a skiers weight.

As soon as there is the potential for a slab in the upper snowpack due to winds or settlement, stick to convervative terrain.

Its a different snowpack this year so be sure to evaluate your decisions before moving into a feature. When stability is the question, terrain is the answer.

Weather Summary

Temperatures area again falling this upcoming weekend with highs in the mid 20s. Winds will be light but over the next few days we may see up to 10cm of new snow. Expect this new snow to be cold smoke low density powder!

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Any avalanches will likely involve the entire snowpack at this time. Use your poles as you travel to feel for the presence of the weak basal layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Watch for isolated windslabs in alpine terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2