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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2019–Jan 29th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cascades - East.

The Bottom Line: If you are heading to the alpine, less traveled terrain, or areas with a shallow snowpack, use caution on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Stay off of steep slopes if you see shooting cracks in the snow or experience collapses.

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

The current snow surface is a mix of supportable and breakable sun and wind crusts, crunchy styrofoam, and recycled powder. Avalanches aside, one of the main hazards out there tomorrow will be firm, icy snow. A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred throughout the region during the storm on January 22nd and 23rd. Several large to very large avalanches were observed in the Salmon la Sac, Icicle Creek Canyon, and on Dirtyface near Lake Wenatchee. Many of these slides are suspected to have run within storm snow or on the January 3rd melt freeze crust. Check out the Regional Synopsis tab for more details on the storm and avalanche activity. Thanks for your observations, keep them coming!

A widely propagating slab that connected terrain features likely occurred toward the end of the storm on the 23rd. Northeast at 7,000ft in Icicle Creek.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A number of potential weak interfaces are worth checking for; The January 22nd surface hoar, small facets above a thick melt freeze crust from January 3rd, and the December 26th surface hoar are the most prevalent. In the Wenatchee Mountains and east of Highway 97, the snowpack is often less than 4 feet deep and highly variable in distribution. These layers are likely to be more reactive in this area. A pair of thin freezing rain crusts associated with facets above, between, and below are the main concern. You are most likely to find these layers to be preserved on wind sheltered, shady, and open slopes above 5,500ft.

Look for shooting cracks, and listen closely for whumphs. Human-triggered slides are becoming unlikely, but careful evaluation of these layers with snowpack tests are still warranted. Use the terrain to your advantage, avoiding areas with thick slabs adjacent to shallow, rocky slopes. Steep, unsupported slopes on shaded aspects are also worth steering clear of. In steep, rocky, and south facing slopes you may be able to initiate an isolated loose wet avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 2