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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2015–Jan 13th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Conservative choices should be on the radar right now as we wait for fresh snow.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Forecast models show no precipitation for the region until Thursday afternoon when a pulse of Pacific moisture is scheduled to arrive. Freezing levels will stay around 600m throughout out the forecast period, but an above freezing layer will pass through the region on Wednesday.  Winds will be light for the most part from the  S-SW..

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, but reports of solar warming have some areas talking about decreasing stability in the afternoon on steep solar aspects, with size 1.5 avalanches possible.

Snowpack Summary

A thick supportive surface crust has capped the snowpack in most, if not all, parts of the forecast region. Below the crust is the most recent storm snow around 50-70cm deep and sitting on a variety of snow surfaces that includes wind affected surfaces, a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered terrain. In the mid snowpack there is a mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layer. This is now typically buried 1m or more. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the slightly deeper crust/facet layer is more widespread and variable.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Winds from the SW may be redistributing snow onto NE slopes at upper elevations and tree line. A small avalanche may produce enough force to trigger deeply buried instabilities.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of thin areas where human-triggering may be possible and may propagate to deeper instabilities.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 5