Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 25th, 2013 8:04AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeRising freezing levels will keep the avalanche danger high and will bring rain to the alpine in the south of the region.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: The next frontal wave with push onto the north coast early Thursday morning causing temperatures to spike before it shift southwards. Expect heavy precipitation to continue.Tonight and Thursday. Snow amounts: up to 20 cm overnight becoming heavy rain Thursday in the south, snow further north / Freezing levels: Rising to 2500m in the south, 1300m in the north / Ridge winds: Strong westerly. Friday: Snow amounts: Up to 10 cm / Ridge winds: Strong westerly / Freezing levels: 800m.Saturday: Snow amounts 10 to 20 / Ridge winds Light westerly / Freezing levels: 800m.
Avalanche Summary
No new observations. Numerous large- very large 2-3 natural slab avalanches occurred during the last storm and observed recently. Most seemed to be storm slabs and wet slabs, and glide crack releases.
Snowpack Summary
Freezing levels are going to be the thing to watch on Thursday.In the south were freezing levels are expected to climb as high as 2500m, rain will deliver a significant load to an already suspect upper snowpack. Further north continuing heavy snowfall and warming temperature will likely form widespread and reactive storm slabs.The December 22nd surface hoar is currently down 100cm in areas that did not avalanche during the last storm cycle.The mid pack features several persistent weak layers but these have likely gained strength at this point.In the north of the region a basal facet and crust combo lingers near the ground. It is most prevalent on NW - E facing aspects at the upper TL and alpine elevations.
Problems
Storm Slabs
In the south: rising freezing levels will bring heavy rains to the alpine and may cause the new snow to react as a wet slab. In the north: continued loading by snow and wind will sustain a widespread storm snow avalanche cycle.
A very conservative approach is essential at this time.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
VariousĀ buried weak layers are present in the region, especially in the North. New snow and wind may cause these weak layers to become more sensitive to triggering.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 26th, 2013 2:00PM