Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 1st, 2024–Apr 2nd, 2024

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Rising freezing levels and warm temperatures will weaken the snowpack and increase avalanche hazard as the day progresses.

Travel early and avoid solar aspects by midday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday two people had a close call on Ursus Minor, narrowly being missed by a sz 2.0 which then launched over the cliffs below.

Also on Sunday, a skier was taken for a ride on Youngs Peak, and another triggered a large cornice along the ridge line.

Another close call with a cornice occurred along the ridgeline of Cheops on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of settled snow remains dry on Northerly aspects. A crust forms a widespread firm surface below 1700m and extends into the alpine on solar aspects.

The Feb 3rd crust/facet layer persists 80-140cm down. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong with an average depth of snow of ~230cm at tree line.

Weather Summary

Mainly cloudy as warm airmass moves into our area on Tuesday morning, with freezing levels rising to 2600m with 30-60km/hr SW winds. Tuesday evening into Wednesday 10-15cm of snow is expected to fall at higher elevations with a chance of rain at lower elevations.

The freezing level will drop back down on Wednesday as light Northerly winds cool the region back down.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.
Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and potential rain in the later afternoon at lower elevations will weaken the snowpack, increasing the likelyhood of releasing. These loose avalanches may start small but can gather surprising mass quickly.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Cornices

Be aware of large cornices overhead, or as you approach/walk along ridgelines. There have been several close calls the last few days with people getting too close and luckily not being taken with the collapsing mass of snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5