Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Mostly dry conditions are forecast for Saturday, with freezing levels near valley bottoms. Moderate winds from the west are expected to become strong from the south on Sunday as the next frontal system moves in from the Pacific. Moderate to Heavy precipitation is expected for the near coastal areas, moderate for the inland areas. Freezing levels should rise on Monday combined with light to moderate precipitation and moderate southerly winds.

No new observations from this region.

Strong winds have been the biggest story recently. Exposed windward slopes have been scoured and wind slabs have formed in lee terrain and may be susceptible to human triggering. There is now around 55-70cms of snow sitting on a surface hoar/crust/facet combo which is the result of the early December dry spell. This crust is widespread and exists in most start zones up to 2000m. Facets can reportedly be found above or below the crust. Prior to being buried, the surface hoar was destroyed by high winds in the alpine, but still coexists with the crust at treeline and below. What is the tipping point of this weak interface? In areas where this interface has reached its threshold, natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 have occurred. If they have yet to happen, I suspect they are gaining some strength but would still react to a rider trigger, especially in steeper, unsupported terrain features. In short, the upper snowpack is variable and deserves caution. It will also see increased load with forecast wind and snow. Beneath this the midpack is well settled and strong.