Avalanche Forecast

High

Another sunny day forecasted for Saturday with freezing levels rising to around 2000m. Good "crust recovery" is expected Saturday night. Cloudy skies are expected to return Sunday morning with freezing levels rising sharply to as high as 2500m. The cloudy weather continues into Monday. Generally light, southerly ridgetop winds are forecasted throughout the period.

On Thursday afternoon a skier boot packing up a ridge in the backcountry surrounding Kicking Horse Mountain Resort triggered a size 2.5 wind slab on a southeast aspect at 2300m. Additionally, several natural and cornice triggered slab avalanches were reported up to size 2.5 on a variety of aspects at treeline and in the alpine. Solar radiation and increasing freezing levels will be the main driver of natural avalanche activity in the coming days.

At ridgetop, cornices are huge and could become increasingly touchy with forecast solar radiation. Expect old wind slabs on lee features at treeline and in the alpine to become more reactive with solar radiation. Sunny skies have likely promoted a melt-freeze cycle on sun-exposed slopes. 40-90cm below the surface you'll find a persistent weak layer comprised of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust. This layer, which was buried in late February, seems variably reactive. In other words, it's still touchy in some places while in other places it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. I'd continue to be suspicious of steep, unsupported features at treeline and in the alpine as this layer has the potential to produce large avalanches. Deeper weak layers from mid-February and early January are now down 50-90cm and 70-120cm respectively. Triggering an avalanche on either of these layers has become unlikely but still has the potential to produce very large avalanches in isolated locations with a heavy trigger or significant warming.