Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Unsettled conditions are expected on Thursday with sunny breaks in the morning and light snowfall in the afternoon. 2-5cm of snowfall is expected with freezing levels below 1000m. Alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the SW. On Friday, mainly dry conditions are expected with a mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels should be around 700m and alpine winds should be light. A weak Pacific storm system may spill into the interior region on Saturday bringing light snowfall.

Observations have been limited during the storm, especially from alpine elevations. On Monday, a natural cycle up to size 3 was reported from the deep snowpack area in the west of the region. On Tuesday, several natural size 2.5 were reported from higher elevations but details were limited due to visibility. Below treeline, ski-cutting produced several size 1 slabs from steep pockets of snow. These slabs were typically 15-30cm deep which suggests storm instabilities and not the deeper Dec 2 interface. Storm slabs are expected to remain sensitive to human-triggering on Thursday but natural activity should taper off now that the storm has ended. The exception might be steep sun-exposed slopes if the sun makes a longer appearance than expected.

Over the past week, 50-80cm of storm snow has typically accumulated in the region. On Tuesday, rain affected the snow surface as high as 2000m but new snow has subsequently fallen as low as 1500m. The storm slab sits over the early-Dec interface which consists of large surface hoar below 1800m, sun crusts on south-facing slopes, old wind affected surfaces above treeline, and possibly faceted surfaces in some areas. This interface appears to be quite variable throughout the region and information on this layer has been limited, so treat the layer with extra respect until more info is available and give the storm snow extra time to stabilize. Recent strong SW winds have built thick wind slabs in leeward features at alpine and exposed areas at treeline. Deeper in the snowpack, the surface hoar interface from early November has been dormant but still may wake up with heavy loading or smaller avalanches stepping down. On very high northern aspects, a crust/facet interface may be found near the ground.