Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 1st, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
Chris Gooliaff,
If you want to start an avalanche Tuesday, the 40-50cm soft slab atop the Jan 29th surface hoar/suncrust is certainly ripe for human triggering.
Supported, conservative lines are the way forward until this persistent weak layer strengthens.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Cold air from the Arctic will invade briefly, with more snow for the weekend.
Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -22*C, light E winds
Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -16*C, light SW winds
Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, 4cm, Alp high -8*C, light SW winds
Fri: Snow, 15cm, Alp high -7*C, mod/gusting strong SW winds
Snowpack Summary
40-50cm from Sunday buried the Jan 29 surface hoar (SH) (5-15mm) and crusts on steep solar aspects. Winds at the tail-end of the storm have created slabs, deeper in lee areas at Alpine and Treeline elevations. The Jan 20 SH (2-4mm) is down 60-70cm, the Jan 11 SH is down ~1m. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.
Avalanche Summary
Natural activity, at all elevations, was seen in the upper 40-50cm, with widespread soft storm slabs failing on unsupported slopes over 35*. If an untouched tree run hasn't avalanched yet, tread lightly. Trees aren't their usual safe haven right now.
A crew in the Abbott were able to easily ski control sz 1-1.5 soft slab avalanches on convexities.
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Jan 29th surface hoar is buried 40-50cm deep and reactive to ski cuts on unsupported slopes. If the surface feels stiff from wind, then the slab may be even touchier. Practice good group mgmt, skiing from safe spot to safe spot.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack
- Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Winds at the tail-end of the storm have created wind slabs in lee features and exposed, cross-loaded slopes. If these sit upon the Jan 29th SH, they will be touchy.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 2nd, 2022 4:00PM
