Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 1st, 2022–Feb 2nd, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

If you want to start an avalanche Tuesday, the 40-50cm soft slab atop the Jan 29th surface hoar/suncrust is certainly ripe for human triggering.

Supported, conservative lines are the way forward until this persistent weak layer strengthens.

Weather Forecast

Cold air from the Arctic will invade briefly, with more snow for the weekend.

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -22*C, light E winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -16*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, 4cm, Alp high -8*C, light SW winds

Fri: Snow, 15cm, Alp high -7*C, mod/gusting strong SW winds

Snowpack Summary

40-50cm from Sunday buried the Jan 29 surface hoar (SH) (5-15mm) and crusts on steep solar aspects. Winds at the tail-end of the storm have created slabs, deeper in lee areas at Alpine and Treeline elevations. The Jan 20 SH (2-4mm) is down 60-70cm, the Jan 11 SH is down ~1m. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity, at all elevations, was seen in the upper 40-50cm, with widespread soft storm slabs failing on unsupported slopes over 35*. If an untouched tree run hasn't avalanched yet, tread lightly. Trees aren't their usual safe haven right now.

A crew in the Abbott were able to easily ski control sz 1-1.5 soft slab avalanches on convexities.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 29th surface hoar is buried 40-50cm deep and reactive to ski cuts on unsupported slopes. If the surface feels stiff from wind, then the slab may be even touchier. Practice good group mgmt, skiing from safe spot to safe spot.

  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Winds at the tail-end of the storm have created wind slabs in lee features and exposed, cross-loaded slopes. If these sit upon the Jan 29th SH, they will be touchy.

  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5