Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Warm air aloft will maintain elevated freezing levels and prevent overnight crust recovery. Moderate to light west-northwest wind. Overnight low temperatures -6 C as freezing level drops below 800 m.

SUNDAY: The warm pattern continues with conditions similar to Saturday. Little overnight cooling is expected leading into another day of above 0 C temperatures as high as 2200 m. A possible morning inversion will produce fog and cooler temperatures in the valleys but above freezing temperatures between 1800 and 2200 m. Sun and scattered clouds with moderate wind from the southwest.

MONDAY: Broken skies. Moderate decreasing west wind, temperatures dropping to -6 C, and freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloud. Light southwest wind. High temperature -8 C. Freezing level at valley bottom.

In neighboring South Columbia Forecast Region, another round of very large (size 2.5-4) deep persistent avalanches failed naturally between Thurs and Friday, with rapid loading and warming temperatures being the likely trigger. In the same timeframe, size 1-2.5 storm and wind slab avalanches failed naturally or were triggered by riders/machines in the North Columbia region, these averaged 20-40 cm deep, and in some cases a weak layer of surface hoar or crust was reported at the interface. An impressive report documents a size 4 avalanche in Rogers Pass here.

The snowpack is quite complex right now recently producing impressive avalanche activity - events of the past week are relevant to WARM weekend. This week we saw numerous very large (size 2.5-3.5) deep persistent slab avalanches occurring in both the Selkirks and Monashees. These avalanches failed on the early December facet/crust layer, typically 100-150 cm deep. One notable pattern is that many of these avalanches released at relatively low elevations (1700 to 2000 m) in open clearings, burns, and slide paths. In many cases, they were triggered by smaller avalanches starting at higher elevations. There were also numerous reports of size 1-3 storm and wind slab avalanches reactive to human triggering and failing naturally. These smaller avalanches could step down to produce large avalanches in very rideable terrain.

20-40 cm recent storm snow is settling fast, wind affected in higher elevation areas and moist on steep solar slopes and lower elevations (below 1500 m) in the afternoon. Crusts will quickly breakdown with warm temperatures on Sunday. The new snow covered a layer of surface hoar or crust and was the interface responsible in many natural storm slab avalanches reported Jan 21.

The top 60-100 cm of snow of the snowpack is generally with a variety of little layers that may or may not be a problem. Along with recent wind effect, upper snowpack layers include little surface hoar, thin crusts, and maybe even soft facets from early January. While none of these upper layers are necessarily going to remain a long-lasting problem, there is a fair bit of uncertainty about their spatial distribution and whether they will remain reactive with the warm temperatures.

The primary weak layer that remains a widespread concern across the Columbia Mountains is a 100-200 cm deep crust/facet layer that formed in early December. There has been regular avalanche activity on this layer at all elevations for over a month, and we expect to see avalanche activity continue on this layer.

• It's critical to stay disciplined and choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
• Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
• Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
• The trees are not the safe-haven they normally are. Terrain at and below treeline is capable of producing large destructive avalanches.
• Cornice failures could trigger very large and destructive avalanches.