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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 12th, 2015–Dec 13th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Conditions are starting to improve but that can all change with the winds.  Winds are forecast to increase into the Moderate range out of the SW on Sunday so watch overhead.  Stability may change throughout the day. 

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Forecasts are calling for 4-6cm of new snow overnight which will help heal a few of the more tracked out areas.  Temps are expected to remain cooler and we can also expect to see the winds increase out of the SW into the moderate range.  Lots of snow is available for transport so winds will be a good thing to keep an eye on.

Avalanche Summary

No new activity was observed on Saturday but there is evidence of some larger avalanches up to sz 2.5 that ran close to full path likely failing within the storm snow down 60cm.  See facebook page for pictures.

Snowpack Summary

Lots going on in the snowpack right now.  Below 2100m the Dec 4th surface hoar persistent weak layer is down 30-40cm down and is being found in most areas.... but not all.  This later is up to 20mm big in some places so being curious about the snowpack, digging and looking for this layer is important.  It is failing easily in snowpack tests in sheltered terrain.  As you transition into Alpine areas, the surface hoar problem decreases and the main concern becomes windslabs in the upper snowpack. These slabs are not widespread as of yet, but that can all change when the winds increase as they always do.  Seems so weird to us to have a midpack thats strength...

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Confined to lee areas as well and cross-loaded gullies. So far they do not extend to far downslope. Easily found in alpine areas more specific at treeline.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Surface hoar at treeline and below is buried down 30-40cm.  Treeline the hoar is more spotty on only N and E aspects.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4