Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 5th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

If we get the forecasted snow, the game is about to change. Snow values could be as much as 30cm's and the winds will be strong. Expect a natural cycle. Loose dry avalanches and cornices should also be on one's radar.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Snow is apparently on the way. By tomorrow afternoon, the area may see as much as 30cm's. That will leave the week's totals at 50cm's. The temperatures are expected to be warm, topping out at -2 in the alpine. Freezing level will rise to just over 2000m by friday afternoon. Alpine winds will be from the SW and range from 45-55km/hr. Valley bottom winds will be around 20km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

No activity was noted today due to limited visibility.

Snowpack Summary

Light snow all day today has left up to 6cm's of new snow. In total, that means there is now 25-35cm's of low density snow on top of the Jan 31 interface. The temperatures were fairly warm today (-1 @ 1850m), so we can expect the new snow to settle quickly, and/or create wind slabs with only a light wind. The winds today were light at valley bottom and treeline elevations. The alpine was a different story. Weather stations all had moderate to strong wind values for most of the afternoon. Windslabs in the alpine are certain at this point. Treeline slabs are growing, but still limited to immediate lee areas and open slopes prone to cross loading.

Problems

Storm Slabs

The new overnight snow will easily form windslabs given the temperatures. "Upside down" conditions may be encountered due to the non-wind effected snow below. Anticipate new slabs overnight.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

The isolated windslabs from this week will now be buried beneath the storm snow. Look for these buried slabs near ridgelines and steep open areas at treeline.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The additional load on this layer may wake it up. Avoid bigger terrain and overhead hazard with the rapid loading.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 6th, 2015 2:00PM