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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2016–Feb 9th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

3500 meter freezing levels on Tuesday means avalanche control on EEOR and a good day to hit the ski hill and give back country avalanche terrain a miss!

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud.  No new precipitation for Tuesday.  Alpine temperature 3.0 C.  Winds light to moderate 30km/h West.  Freezing levels up to 3500 meters.

Avalanche Summary

Very little to no avalanche activity observed today along the Smith Dorrien and Spray Lakes highway.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs and storm slab interfaces are bonding and tightening up. The critical weakness in the snowpack at the moment is the January 6th facet layer.  In some sheltered locations at treeline and below the layer can be found 30-40 cm below the surface.  At higher elevations where the Jan 6th  is present, compression tests and other mechanical tests are widely variable.  The long and the short of it is that the layer is widespread and giving mixed results, therefore my confidence in the snowpack is low right now.  Therefore its a great time to keep terrain choices fairly straightforward and keeping exposure time to big features like head walls, big snow faces and cornices to a minimum.  The warmer air is here and will be around all week peaking on Tuesday.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The January 6th facets are widespread at all elevations and aspects and will very likely become highly reactive to the extreme day time heating on Tuesday and the rest of the week.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Avoid all avalanche terrain.>Avoid alpine terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

With the forecast freezing levels, it is highly likely we will see cornice failures, particularly at alpine ridge and treeline ridge features on northeast aspects.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Good day to make conservative terrain choices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are prevalent in any open features at treeline and above and will require avoidance during the warm air event on Tuesday.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3