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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2021–Mar 28th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

There is uncertainty with forecast precipitation amounts Saturday night through Sunday. If snowfall amounts materialize as forecast, then the avalanche danger will certainly be High.

Confidence

Low - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY Night: Snow or rain, accumulation 15-25 cm, moderate to strong west and southwest wind, freezing level rising to 1400 m with treeline temperature near 0 C.

SUNDAY: Snow or rain, accumulation 15-25 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level 1100 m with treeline temperatures around -1 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate northwest wind, freezing level around 700 m with treeline temperatures -3 C. 

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures -1 C. 

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports avalanche activity in the past few days. Strom slab and wet loose avalanche activity is expected to increase in the coming days with the arrival of new snow, rain and moderate to strong wind.

Snowpack Summary

A mix of rain and snow on Saturday night and Sunday may bring 30-50 cm of new snow to upper elevations. Forecast moderate to strong winds will redistribute this new snow. It will on 30-50 cm of snow that fell through the previous week. Rain at lower elevations may make the upper snowpack wet or moist as the freezing level hovers between 1200 and 1400 m through the storm. Along ridgelines, cornices are large and always have the potential of failing or being triggered from the weight of a human.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The forecast calls for heavy snowfall combined with moderate to strong southwest wind Saturday night through Sunday. This will promote storm slab formation at upper elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

The freezing level is forecast to fluctuate between 1000 and 1400 m during the storm. As a result, expect to see the surface snow sluff in steep terrain at lower elevations where it will likely rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5