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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 24th, 2020–Dec 25th, 2020
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Storm slabs will be most reactive where the wind has loaded deep pockets of snow over a crust. The crust makes a slick bed surface for avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Increasing cloud, wind increasing to strong southwest, freezing level dropping 2000 to 1200 m.

Friday: 10-15 cm new snow, wind easing to moderate southwest, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level rising 1000 to 1400 m.

Saturday: 15-20 cm new snow overnight, moderate south wind, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Sunday: Clearing, moderate west wind, freezing level dropping 2000 to 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Two skier-triggered avalanches were observed on Tuesday within the recent storm snow, as seen in the MINs here and here. The likelihood of triggering similar avalanches will remain possible until we see evidence that the snow is bonding to the underlying crust.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of warm, dense snow is forecast to fall over the day Friday. The new snow falls ontop of a temperature crust on solar aspects at upper elevations, which formed during the warm, sunny period on Thursday. On shady aspects that have remained dry, new snow falls over wind slabs on variety of aspects due to recent variable wind directions. 

Around 30 cm of snow now overlies a hard melt-freeze crust up to around 1500 m.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled and hosts numerous other melt-freeze crusts which are well bonded to the surrounding snow.

Terrain and Travel

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With 10-15 cm falling over the day Friday, around 30 cm of snow now overlies a hard crust. If triggered, storm slabs will slide easily on the crust. Thicker wind slabs may also be found at the mountain tops on all aspects due to variable wind directions.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2