Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

Mostly clear and dry for the forecast period. Although warmer on Thursday and Friday, freezing levels are expected to remain in or near valley bottoms. Winds are expected to be light but gusty northwesterlies.

Recent observations include several natural storm and wind slab avalanches up to Size 3 in response to moderate precipitation, rising freezing levels and strong winds on Monday. Storm and wind slabs were also sensitive to human triggers on open unsupported slopes.

Warm temperatures and light to moderate precipitation settled the 30-70cm of recent storm snow and created upside down slabs and/or thin surface crust on Monday. Since then, light amounts dry snow is maintaining the snow supply for wind slab development, but cold temperatures are likely starting to improve storm slab stability. Strong winds have created high variability in treeline and alpine areas, with shallow faceted scoured areas, thick wind slabs, and thin trigger points for various storm snow and persistent weaknesses. Up to three different persistent weaknesses can be found in the top 150cm. The most concerning and deepest is surface hoar and/or facets buried mid-December, which is widespread on all aspects at all elevations, but has been most sensitive on south through east facing treeline slopes. Even though recent snowpack tests have shown that this weakness is getting harder to trigger, it still has a high propensity to propagate fractures and shallower weaknesses create step-down potential.