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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 16th, 2014–Apr 17th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Thursday:  Light to locally moderate precipitation. Winds moderate west. Freezing level 1800m.Friday: Overcast with flurries. Moderate northwest winds. Freezing level 1500m.Saturday:  Mix of sun and cloud. Light west wind. Freezing level 2200m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are limited to solar triggered avalanches to size 2 from south facing terrain in the alpine and tree-line.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow and/or a crust exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north-facing terrain. A melt-freeze crust buried at the beginning of April can be found 40-50cm below the snow surface. This layer has been variably reactive in snowpack tests. Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the South Columbia region:-The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm and the early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm seem to be inactive.-The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming could wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Expect to see an increase in avalanche activity with forecast rain at lower elevations or on solar aspects if the sun comes out for extended periods of time.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs immediately lee of ridge crest may still be sensitive to human triggering.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2