Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Overview: A series of disturbances are embedded in a west/southwesterly flow which will bring continued snowfall to the region. There is some model disagreement in the track and timing of the systems; however, southern parts of the region are generally expected to see the highest accumulations.Monday night: Up to 20cm of snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at surfaceTuesday: Light snowfall / Moderate to strong westerly winds / Freezing level at surfaceWednesday: 10-20cm of snow / Light ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 500mThursday: Light flurries / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at about 1000m

Over the weekend 2 size 2 skier-triggered avalanches (1 was remotely triggered from 25m) occurred in the Monashees. The February 10th interface was the culprit in these events. A few remotely triggered size 1 hard wind slabs were also noted over the weekend in exposed lee terrain. They formed in response to strong winds and redistribution of surface snow on Friday night. I would expect fairly widespread storm slab avalanche activity with ongoing snowfall and wind.

In many areas over 40cm of storm snow overlies surface hoar in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and wind slabs in exposed terrain. Initially, these new accumulations are expected to react as a wind slab in exposed terrain. As the new slab deepens and gains cohesion by wind and warming, more widespread storm slab activity can be anticipated.There is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies between 80 and 130cm below the surface, and includes surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although avalanche activity at this interface has generally tapered-off, large destructive avalanches are still a very real concern with recent reports of remote-triggering, "whumpfing" and sudden snowpack test results. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.