Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

FRIDAY: the first wave of a series of weak storms is expected to hit bringing up to 10cm of new snow through the day, accompanied by light to moderate westerly winds, and a temperature at tree-line of -5C. SATURDAY: No precipitation is expected. Winds will continue to be light from the south and the tree-line temperature will creep up to -5C.  SUNDAY: Up 5cm of snow, light to moderate south winds, -5C at tree-line.

Avalanche activity appears to have tapered off since the weekend. Avalanche professionals in the field are reporting sluffing in steep terrain in response to skier traffic (aka good skiing). No new avalanches have been reported on the layer of buried surface hoar since last week, although this may be because people have been avoiding locations where it is likely to be found.

It sounds like good riding conditions out there with mainly low density snow on the surface. Recent variable winds have produced small wind slabs on both south and north aspects. About 30 to 80cm of snow now sits above a crust that extends up to 1800m. The early December persistent weak layer can now be found down 40 to 120cm. This layer can be found as an old sun crust on solar aspects in the alpine, or as large grained surface hoar and small facets in isolated pockets below tree-line, especially between 1400m and 1800m. Snow pit tests on this interface have been widely variable; producing a mixture of sudden and resistant failures or no results. The mid and lower portions of the snowpack are thought to be mainly well settled.