Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Overnight and Saturday: Mostly sunny with light to moderate Northwest winds and freezing level rising to about 1400 metres. The ridge of high pressure is expected to flatten out Saturday evening allowing cloud and light precipitation to move into the region by Sunday morning.Sunday: Expect 10-15 cms of new snow starting in the morning, combined with moderate Southwest winds. Freezing level should be about 1400 metres.Monday: Unsettled weather is forecast for Monday with cloudy skies and light West winds. Models are not in agreement for Monday. Hopefully we will know more tomorrow.

Some small loose dry avalanche were reported from steep terrain on northerly aspects in the alpine. A thin layer of new snow was becoming moist and sliding easily on a recent layer of sun crust on Southerly aspects in the alpine and at treeline. There was one report that was 24 hours old of a remotely triggered avalanche that released down to the February 12th weak layer of buried surface hoar.

There is a thin layer of new snow and wind transported new snow above various sun crusts and old storm slabs, that may release naturally or be easily triggered during periods of strong solar radiation on Southerly aspects. The storm slab continues to settle, and is becoming more stubborn to trigger. The weak layer of surface hoar that was buried on February 12th is now down about 100-150 cms and continues to be triggered by light additional loads on Southerly aspects where it is sitting on an old sun crust. Larger loads like cornice fall or explosives have been able to trigger this layer on various aspects in the alpine and at treeline. If we get a period of strong solar radiation, then we may see another cycle of natural activity on Southerly aspects resulting in large destructive avalanches.