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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 5th, 2016–Feb 6th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Watch for reactive storm slabs to form as the new snow settles. Tricky conditions still exist due to a touchy buried weak layer. Conservative terrain selection is critical.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Up to 13cm snow overnight, with another 5cm possible thought he day, rain expected at lower elevations, moderate to strong westerly winds, freezing level of 1300m. SUNDAY: sunny with cloudy periods, light westerly winds, 1300m freezing level. MONDAY: sunny with cloudy periods, light westerly winds, freezing level around 2500m, +5C at 2000m.

Avalanche Summary

The recent storm snow is becoming increasingly reactive with numerous small natural and skier controlled avalanches reported in the last two days. Although there haven't been any persistent slab avalanche reported recently I think it could still be possible to trigger large destructive avalanches in isolated open, unsupported terrain features at and below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new storm snow is settling to form a widespread soft slab. Moderate southwesterly winds on Thursday formed fresh wind slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. Bellow 1900m a crust may be found about 50cm below the surface although this layer seems to be most prevalent in the Monashees. In the far south of the region a layer of surface buried at the end of January may be found at around this depth in isolated features at treeline and in the alpine. Deeper in the snow pack, the surface hoar layer from early January is now down 80-120cm in most places. Although this layer has become harder to trigger and is variably reactive in recent snowpack tests, it still has the potential to produce large avalanches. I would continue to show respect for this layer especially in steep, open terrain at treeline and below through the weekend.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Winds, new snow and warm temperatures are expected to create touchy conditions as the new snow settles to form a slab. Where rain falls on previously cold snow increased avalanche activity is expected.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid steep, open glades in the forest.>Avoid steep, open slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

If triggered, this layer can still produce large, destructive avalanches. A cornice failure or a small avalanche in motion has the potential to step-down to a deeper weak layer.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar. >Be cautious around steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5