Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2016–Feb 16th, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Ski conditions are a mix of breakable and not-so-breakable crusts. Cross your fingers for some some (much-needed) new snow tonight; if we see 5cm or more, expect small Storm Slabs to bump the Treeline Danger up to Moderate.

Weather Forecast

Forecasts models conflict, but show up to 8 cm of new snow Saturday night, accompanied by moderate to strong SW winds. A clearing trend on Sunday, before - possibly - another 5cm early on Monday. Temperatures will remain in the 0 to -7 range. By Tuesday, winds increase, cloud cover thickens, and we could see significant snowfall.

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing warm temperatures are causing continued settlement of our aging snowpack. A breakable 5cm crust exists Below Treeline, and on slopes facing the sun. At Alpine/Treeline elevations, Cornices and new Wind Slabs are developing lee to strong SW winds. Buried up to 1m is a persistent, faceting rain crust, which has not been active recently.

Avalanche Summary

A size 1.5 natural avalanche was observed in North facing alpine terrain on Saturday; likely a cornice fall, triggering a small Wind Slab below. Several loose wet avalanches, up to Size 1.5, occurred during Fridays' minor rain event.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

These are currently thin and isolated, but will increase if we see the new snow Saturday and Sunday nights, that some forecasts predict. The wind will blow any new snow onto lee slopes near ridge crests -use increased caution in these areas.

Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading could create slabs.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2