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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Newly formed wind slabs will be reactive today.

Weather Forecast

Strong SW winds are expected to continue today with trace amounts of precipitation.  A strong cold front associated with a deepening low pressure system will be moving into the area later tonight. Precipitation amounts are forecasted to be 5-10cm tonight and up to 20cm tomorrow. Avalanche hazard will increase with the new snow and sustained winds.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of new snow was exposed to strong overnight winds. In addition to a developing storm slab, expect a thicker wind slab on leeward micro features and N-NE aspects. The January 15 surface hoar layer down 15-25cm is widespread and sits on a crust on solar aspects. A cohesive slab sits on top of the Dec 17 surface hoar layer (down 70-120cm).

Avalanche Summary

Several large natural avalanches were observed yesterday during in paths facing the highway corridor. This avalanche cycle was a result of a developing storm slab in recent new snow.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow was exposed to strong overnight winds. In addition to a developing storm slab, expect a thicker wind slab on leeward micro features and N-NE aspects.  These newly formed slabs need time to bond to the old snow surface and will be reactive.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The December 17th surface hoar layer is still a real concern. This layer is widespread at treeline and more spotty at alpine elevations. The surface hoar sits on a thick crust complex which provides a firm failure plane for avalanches.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3