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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 9th, 2016–Feb 10th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

While it may be cool in valley, alpine temps are forecasted to be above zero today!!  Pay attention to overhead hazards such as cornice or sun exposed start zones

Weather Forecast

A massive temperature spike is forecasted today with freezing levels going up to 3600m.  Mtn top temps will get up to +2 deg!  with valley bottoms remaining generally mild.  The good news is freezing levels will come down to 1700-1900m for the later part of the week and approximately 25cm of new snow is forecast by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Yesterdays warm temps is promoted rapid settlement of the storm snow. Above 1950m a thin crust formed over widespread windslab, which will very likely break down this morning and the surface snow should become moist.January 4 Surface hoar persistent weak layer is down 90-130cm with today's skyrocketing temps this layer could become more reactive!

Avalanche Summary

Two new avalanches were observed yesterday associated with the start of the warming trend. Both size 2 from 1800-2200m SZ's. With the very warm temps today expect a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle, especially on southerly aspects if the sun pokes out. With the added heat we may see the deeper layers become reactive producing large avalanches

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow and wind deposits are settling rapidly over a layer of lower density decomposing precipitation particles. With the forecasted warm temps today this slab could become more reactive.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Avoid areas with overhead hazard.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

With rising temps expect to seethe surface snow becoming moist and running loose, especially from rocky areas & cliffs or South facing slopes. This may be enough of a trigger to step down to weaker layers
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layer now buried around 100cm is still failing suddenly in snowpack stability tests a may potentially result in a large avalanche if triggered
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4