Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 14th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mconlan, Avalanche Canada

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Expect to find deep and touchy wind slabs that could form large avalanches. Persistent slabs may also linger in specific terrain. Conservative terrain travel is recommended.

Summary

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

We received reports of numerous small to large (size 1 to 2) wind slabs triggered by riders and naturally in lee terrain features over the past few days. Slabs on Tuesday were 30 to 50 cm deep around treeline and propagated widely.

On Friday, a large avalanche was triggered by riders, likely releasing on the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary. See this MIN for details and photos, highlighting the propagation potential and high consequence nature of this layer.

Looking forward, wind slabs will likely remain triggerable by riders on Wednesday. Expect to find them in lee (north to east) terrain features at all elevations. It also remains possible that riders could trigger a persistent slab avalanche, where the layer exists.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of snow is forecast for Wednesday with southwest wind. This snow will fall onto previously wind affected snow. Tuesday's strong southerly wind affected the snow at all elevations, forming wind slabs at least 30 to 50 cm deep in any lee terrain feature. Substantially deeper and harder slabs are expected on alpine lee slopes, perhaps around 100 cm. Windward (southerly) slopes were stripped from the strong wind.

A hard melt-freeze crust that extends up to about 1700 m is now on the snow surface in wind-exposed terrain and otherwise buried about 50 to 80 cm in wind-loaded terrain. The crust appears to be bonding to the snowpack.

A weak layer of surface hoar and facets may be buried about 80 to 120 cm deep on north to east aspects in alpine and upper treeline elevations. The layer may rest on a harder melt-freeze crust. Where preserved, this layer has shown to have very high propagation potential and capable of producing large avalanches hundreds of metres wide.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -10 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 20 to 30 km/h south wind with valley outflow winds possible, treeline temperature -9 °C.

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 30 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.
  • Remote triggering is a big concern, be aware of the potential for wide propagations and large, destructive avalanches at all elevations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Expect wind slabs to be reactive on Wednesday, capable of producing large avalanches with good propagation. Recent strong southwest wind formed wind slabs in lee terrain features. Around 10 to 20 cm of new snow on Wednesday will rest atop these slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

We continue to see periodic avalanches on a weak layer of surface hoar and facets buried about 100 cm deep. Resulting avalanches have propagated for hundreds of metres, with some being remotely triggered from hundreds of metres away. The common trend is that they are on north to east aspects around 1500 to 1700 m in elevation.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Feb 15th, 2023 4:00PM

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