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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

May 7th, 2024–May 9th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

We are entering a massive warm up.

Time to avoid all avalanche terrain and any exposure to avalanche run outs.

Scramblers be aware of what's overhead and stay out of gully's.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations or reports the last few days. Forecasters have not been out on foot, but have driven the spray road. Wide spread wet activity is everywhere. This large warm up is a good opportunity for any slope that has not avalanched will likely wake up the deep persistent weak layers in the snowpack and be large destructive wet avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

With above freezing temperatures and mixed rain and snow the last few days, Finding any quality skiing would be a hard goal. Crusts on all aspects with the exception of shaded North above 2400m (which is likely also being affected). This would be a great time to avoid any exposure to avalanche terrain as this hot weather passes through.

Weather Summary

We are entering the big warm up of the spring. Freezing levels are going to rapidly rise to from 2900m on Wednesday to 3900m by Friday, and stay there through the weekend. This is the warm up we have been waiting for. Valley temperatures are forecasted to be in the +20 range.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Be aware that wet activity at low elevations is a classic situation for step-down failures in deeply buried persistent weak layers.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Concern remains for basal instabilities on high north areas. Be cautious in thin areas. This is low probability high consequence.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wet Slabs

As the heat comes through the region, overnight freezes will be minimal to non-existent. The snowpack will be in a full time state of melt and weakening

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5

Cornices

If there were ever a time to avoid cornices, this would be it! With the drastic change in temperatures, Cornices will destabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3