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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 29th, 2017–Mar 30th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Recent storm slabs may become reactive if the warm March sun pops out during the day. Storm slabs may "step-down" and release persistent weak layers, resulting in large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Overnight: Some light precipitation expected to continue overnight, with light northwest winds and freezing down to 500 metres by morning. Thursday: A weak ridge of high pressure should bring broken skies or scattered cloud along with light northwest winds and daytime freezing up to 1100 metres. Friday: The next storm moves onto the north coast bringing 5-10 cm of new snow by morning and another 10-15 during the day combined with strong southwest winds and freezing levels up to 1300 metres. Saturday: Continued stormy weather with 15-20 cm of new snow and strong southwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

Two natural persistent slab avalanches were reported northwest of Terrace on Tuesday that released down 100 cm and failed in shallow rocky areas adjacent o large slopes.. On Sunday, a machine-triggered Size 3 (with crown approximately 2m thick) was reported in the South Douglas area just north of Terrace on a northwest aspect near 1400m. The slab is suspected to have run on the late February interface and involves an incredible story of survival. Click here for details.

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs continue to develop in the alpine and at treeline. Warm daytime temperatures have created moist snow at treeline and wet snow below treeline. The February 21st persistent weak layer continues to be a concern for triggering large avalanches. This combination of crust and weak facets is now down 100-150 cm, and may be triggered by light additional loads in shallow weak spots adjacent to large terrain features. The snow below treeline may become weak and release as loose wet avlanches or wet slabs in steep unsupported terrain features. Spring conditions may change quickly, especially if the sun pops out during the day and warms the slab above the weak layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm slabs may continue to be triggered by light additional loads like a single skier or rider.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of underlying windslabs.If triggered, the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A weak facet/crust layer from late February has produced several large human triggered avalanches the past few days. Triggering this layer is most likely in shallower areas, but a small wind slab or cornice fall could act as a natural trigger.
Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches may release naturally at lower elevations due to warm daytime temperatures and high freezing levels.
Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2