Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 7th, 2015 9:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

The danger has come down slightly, but the snowpack needs more time to adjust before we start to size up more challenging objectives.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Clear and dry weather is forecast for the period. No precipitation is expected. Winds should decrease Saturday afternoon, but they remain strong SW at upper elevations Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look the same, but all bets are off for Wednesday. The current models show the freezing level rising to 2000m. Too early to say how that will play out.

Avalanche Summary

I suspect large natural avalanches were running Friday, but we do not have any observations from treeline/alpine elevations where the action is at.

Snowpack Summary

The NW Coast is THE place to be in the province right now. Arctic air has kept things cool and the snow totals are substantial. The storm produced 50 to 100cm accompanied by screaming winds out of the E through SE. Observations are limited, but there has likely been a lot of slab development in wind exposed terrain at and above treeline. The late-January crust is thought to be down 50 to 150cm in the south of the region and about half this depth in the north. This crust may have surface hoar on it. The mid-January rain crust and/or surface hoar layer is down over 150cm in the south and has generally become inactive though it may still be a concern in thinner snowpack areas. The November crust/facet combo near the bottom of the snowpack is thought to be generally well bonded but may still be reactive in the far north of the region.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Strong SW winds may continue to fuel the natural avalanche cycle at upper elevations, even if they back off the snowpack still needs some time to adjust to the 50 to 100cm of new snow. I would be very cautious of stepping out Sunday.

Be very cautious if you decide to step out of simple terrain.>Be mindful of the wind. If it's moving snow around natural avalanches are likely still possible.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 7

Persistent Slabs

No observations mean there's a ton of uncertainty concerning the deeper problem layers in the snowpack. I would manage this by assuming that every slope above treeline has the potential to produce a very large and destructive avalanche.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried crusts and/or surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

4 - 7

Valid until: Feb 8th, 2015 2:00PM