Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 26th, 2015 7:49AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

The snowpack is extremely variable depending on aspect and elevation and does not adjust well to rapid change. Watch for rising alpine temperatures to well above zero. Check out the Mountain Information Network. Give info, get info!

Summary

Weather Forecast

The high pressure continues to sit stationary over the region through the weekend. Valley bottoms will remain cold while a strong temperature inversion with an above freezing layer will develop by Friday. Moderate to strong outflow winds will prevail in coastal valleys and cloud/ fog may accompany the strengthening temperature inversion as moisture becomes trapped. This high pressure  is forecast to last until at least Sunday. The warmest air will be at around 1800 m with temperatures reaching just above 5 degrees. The current weather pattern will start to see change by Monday or Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday no new avalanche observations were reported. However; I did notice a Facebook post on the Avalanche Canada page under visitor posts with a great photo of a size 2 slab avalanche failing on glacier ice from Finch Ridge. I don't know any other important details like time, date, aspect, elevation, or if it was a natural or rider triggered. Stiff wind slabs may remain sensitive to rider triggers and as the warm air aloft invades the region watch for obvious clues of instability like natural avalanche activity and moist/ wet snow surfaces, especially on southerly slopes. Smaller avalanches may also trigger deeper layers beneath the surface, initiating larger avalanches especially at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Monday's 10-20 cm of storm snow has seen some serious effects from the recent wind and cold temps. Northerly winds have likely built stiff wind slabs on southerly slopes and stripped snow from exposed aspects. These wind slabs may have a poor bond to the old surfaces that comprise of surface hoar, crusts ( up to 2100 m) and some dry facetted snow surfaces above 2100 m. Strengthening temperature inversions at upper elevations may start to deteriorate the snowpack, especially on southerly aspects. Watch for obvious signs of instability like moist and/or wet snow surfaces and snow balling. Where the buried crust is thick, avalanches failing on deeper layers beneath have become much less likely. My uncertainty lies at higher elevations where the buried crust doesn't exist and deeper persistent weak layers may, especially if the warming changes the upper snowpack structure and overload the buried weak layers where they exist. Reports indicate that these shears are resistant in the moderate to hard range but still have sudden fracture characteristics. I'd remain extra cautious as they may be sensitive to rider triggering.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Stiff wind slabs, especially on southerly aspects will likely have a poor bond to the old snow surfaces and may remain sensitive to rider triggers.
Start on mellow slopes and use a cautious approach to terrain while gathering information along the way.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet
Strengthening warm air aloft (above 1000 m) may deteriorate snow surfaces initiating loose wet avalanches. Smaller avalanches could dig down to deeper layers, especially at higher elevations, initiating larger slab avalanches.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>With these very warm temperature inversions, use extra caution, on or near sunny slopes above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 27th, 2015 2:00PM