Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Happy Daylight Savings!
Give your minds extra time to assess slopes for the Feb 22nd weak layer.
We are into a period of lower probability/ high consequence!
Weather Forecast
A cold front is moving southward across the province and will reach Rogers Pass by Tuesday morning.
Today: a mix of sun and cloud. Light west winds. Alpine high -11*C.
Tonight: cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation. Moderate SW winds. Alpine low -11*C
Tomorrow: 19cm of snow with moderate SW winds. Alpine high -8*C and freezing level at 900m.
Snowpack Summary
25cm+/- of storm snow has been redistributed by moderate S'ly winds near ridgecrests in the alpine and exposed treeline. Below these slabs, the Feb 22nd persistent weak layer is now buried down 60-90cm, and consists of 3-7mm surface hoar on all aspects up to 2450m, and a crust on solar aspects. In some locations, this surface hoar sits on a crust.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose dry avalanches up to size 2.0 were observed yesterday on steep solar aspects, as well as several size 2.5 avalanches from the gullies of Mt. Macdonald.
On Friday, a snowmobile triggered size 2.5 slide occurred inside the E boundary of Glacier NP in the Bald Hills. Evidence indicated 2 sleds were involved and the group self extricated.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Feb 22 Surface Hoar/ sun crust layer is down ~90cm at TL in the W end of the park & 50-80cm in the east. It's a likely depth for skier triggering in shallower snowpack areas. This problem is decreasing in probability but remains high consequence
- Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Loose Dry
Unconsolidated new snow will be reactive to strong solar radiation, especially on steep, rocky features.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Moderate to strong southerly winds this week have formed wind slabs in the alpine and exposed areas at treeline. If triggered, these wind slabs have the potential to step down to the Feb 22nd SH/ sun crust layer.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- If triggered the windslabs may step down to the Feb 22 SH layer with potential for large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5