Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

The ridge of high pressure is expected to break down on Friday as a weak frontal system reaches the coast. Friday should be sunny with alpine winds progressively becoming strong from the southwest and freezing levels progressively falling below 2000m.  Cloudy conditions are expected for Saturday with moderate to strong southwest winds in the alpine and freezing levels dropping to around 1500m. A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Sunday with light to moderate southerly winds in the alpine and afternoon freezing levels around 1400m.  A weak storm system is currently forecast to reach the region on Sunday night.

On Wednesday, numerous slabs up to size 2.5 were reported on solar aspects in the far north of the region.  Some of these releases were over 2m deep releasing on old weak layers.  In the south, a natural icefall triggered a size 2.5 slab avalanche.  Several loose wet avalanches were also reported.  On Tuesday, widespread sluffing was reported at all elevations and well as some shallow solar triggered slabs up to size 1.5. Cornices and glide cracks are also reported to be very active in the north of the region. The continued warming, sun exposure, and limited overnight recovery means natural cornice releases, deep persistent slab releases, and loose sluffing are expected to continue on Friday. Very large avalanches will remain a serious concern until the region gets some sustained periods of cooling,

A good overnight refreeze was reported in the south of the region on Thursday morning.  This crust is expected to have quickly broken down during the day. In the north of the region, no surface crust formed overnight.  On Wednesday, moist surface snow was being reported to mountain tops on all aspects with wet surface snow at treeline and below. A weak crust/surface hoar layer which was buried over a week ago is down 20-30cm in the north of the region. A widespread crust/facet layer buried in early February and a lingering surface hoar layer from January can now be found down a meter or more. Weak basal facets also exist in some areas and have been shown to be most reactive in the north of the region. All these old weak layers still have the potential to produce large avalanches, especially with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. Extra caution is required during this period of substantial warming and intense solar radiation, as this is when these layers have the biggest potential to wake up.