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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2012–Jan 1st, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Have a safe and fun new year!

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Monday night and Tuesday: The weak frontal systems weakens out and gives place to dryer conditions, moderate NorthWest winds switching to light SouthWest on Tuesday. Broken cloud cover is expected. Temperatures are expected to be quite mild in the alpine afternoon due to an inversion (above freezing levels between 1600 m. and 2400 m.)  Wednesday: A new frontal system is arriving which could give light to moderate amounts of precipitation with strong to extreme SouthWest winds. Thursday: The precipitations are expected to continue throughout the day and looks like winds could slow down considerably and temperatures cool off slightly as well.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches were reported. A natural size 2 slab avalanche was observed in the Hankin area that would have happened around December 28th. Cornice fall is suspected to be the trigger. The slab happened on a North facing slope, it stepped down deeper in the snowpack, possibly on the November 6th crust. For more information check out the report here.

Snowpack Summary

Similar conditions as yesterday with a few more centimeters of snow. As a general overview, a shallow snowpack (about 1m deep) exists, with facets that have continued to develop at the surface of the snowpack and at the base of the snowpack in shallow and rocky areas. Strong winds have scoured some alpine slopes to ground. Wind slabs exist in many wind-exposed areas, however their distribution is quite variable and some areas have no wind-effect at all. Indeed, cold density snow is still possible to find at the surface in wind sheltered areas. Below treeline, very loose cold snow is sluffing easily from steep terrain and early season hazards like exposed stumps and rocks are still to watch for. Professionals are still mindful of a facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack. Although triggering it has become unlikely, it may be possible from a thin-spot trigger point, with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a shallower slab stepping down to it. The natural slab avalanche that happened on December 28th is a good example of this concern.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Be mindful that warming temperatures and sun exposition could make the windslabs more fragile in the afternoon.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried facet/crust weakness exists near the base of the snowpack. This layer could be triggered by large loads such as a cornice collapse or from a thin-spot trigger point.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>Choose the deepest and strongest snowpack areas on your run.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5