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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 29th, 2014–Dec 30th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Mt Hood.

More caution will be needed Monday at Mt Hood than the rest of the NWAC forecast area due to the heavy snowfall through Sunday.

Detailed Forecast

Northwest winds should change to northeast with an end to light snow showers and cool temperatures at Mt Hood on Monday. A stabilizing trend will start on Monday. But it will take longer at Mt Hood than the rest of the NWAC forecast area due to the heavy snowfall through Sunday.

Areas of lingering deep wind slab should be likely at Mt Hood on Monday. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on steep lee slopes.

Areas of lingering storm slab should also be possible on Monday. This could be pretty widespread at Mt Hood since most of Mt Hood received prolonged heavy snowfall.

Any hoar frost that survived the storm could increase the instability of wind or storm slab layers.

Instability should be limited to new snow and deeper instabilities in the snow pack are not currently expected at Mt Hood.

The sun should be out by later Monday but sun effects should be limited since we are barely past the solstice.

Note that northeast winds may increase Monday night and Tuesday so heads up for new wind slab potential on Tuesday.

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Snowpack Discussion

A cooler period with little precipitation was seen about Thursday to Friday. Some hoar frost is possible from Thursday night.

A cold front moved over the Northwest on Saturday and Saturday night. West winds changed to northwest, with moderate to heavy snow persisting at Mt Hood through today and a cooling trend. It has been dumping snow at Mt Hood today. NWAC sites at Timberline and Meadows indicate 1.5 feet of storm snow by this afternoon with at least a few more inches likely this evening and night.

NWAC observer CJ Svela called from Timberline to report heavy snow and heavy snow loading on this morning. The avalanche forecast for Mt Hood was changed to high for the above and near tree line zones.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1