Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Storm Cycle!
Even though below treeline elevations are quite shrubby, don't let that fool you!
Expect avalanches to be running into valley bottoms.
Weather Forecast
The Atmospheric River is forecast to arrive tonight!
On Sunday we could see ~60cm of new snow, with freezing levels rising to 1900m and strong to extreme winds from the SW.
Monday could see another 48cm with extreme SW gusty winds
Snowpack Summary
Recent strong winds, new snow and warm temperatures has deposited fresh storm slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of TL. Height of snow varies significantly with elevation from ~30cm @ Rogers Pass to ~175cm in the Alpine. There are 2 prominent crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~40cm and the October crust lies near the base of the snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
A natural size 2.0 avalanche was observed off of Mt Cheops today. Natural activity increased Friday in the HWY corridor, and there are several MIN reports about the Cheops North path avalanches reaching down into the bushy run-outs below treeline. Avalanche activity will peak on Sunday and Monday as Rogers Pass gets hammered by the next storm.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
60cms of new snow, strong wind, and warming temperatures will create storm slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of Treeline. Expect storm slab size and distribution to increase considerably as the storm progresses.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are very prevalent
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Dry
Expect fast-moving loose dry in steep, confined terrain features.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2