Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Confidence
Fair
Weather Forecast
Gradually clearing overnight with light Northeast winds and alpine temperatures dropping down to about -22. Mostly clear and cold on Monday with light to moderate Northeast winds and alpine high temperatures around -20. Clear and cold on Tuesday with light Northwest winds. Continued clear and cold on Wednesday.
Avalanche Summary
No natural avalanches reported. Explosives control work resulted in avalanches up to size 1.5 that appear to have run on the mid-December surface hoar that is buried down 40-60 cm.
Snowpack Summary
Some areas may have a thin layer of surface hoar that was buried on December 27th and now has about 5-10 cm of light dry snow above. The slab above the persistent weak layer of surface hoar and crust that was buried in mid-December is now 40-60 cm thick and gives mostly sudden planar results in snow profile tests when moderate forces are applied. The persistent slab problem is widespread across the region and is not expected to improve it's bonding properties during the forecast dry and cold weather. Shallow snowpack areas continue to have concerns for a deeper early season crust/facet layer down more than a metre that may collapse under large loads or from weak trigger spots around exposed rocks and/or trees.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 4
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 6