Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A dirty ridge of high pressure should keep things mainly dry on Wednesday but light scattered flurries are possible. A mix of sun and cloud is expected with freezing levels around 1800m. Alpine winds are forecast to be light-to-moderate from the SW. On Thursday, a mix of sun and cloud is expected with light scattered precipitation. Freezing levels are forecast to rise to over 2000m. On Friday, dry conditions are expected with mainly sunny conditions. Freezing levels may peak on Friday at around 3000m.

Widespread natural, human-triggered, and explosive controlled avalanches up to size 3 were reported on Friday through Monday. This includes storm slabs and persistent slabs. On Sunday, a skier was involved in an accident in the Canyon Creek area. The subject was caught in a size 2.5 persistent slab which resulted in serious injuries. The avalanche released on the mid-January surface hoar layer down around 80cm. On Tuesday, explosive triggered a size 2.5 avalanche on the November crust/facet layer. This occurred in an area that had previously slide and then reloaded. On Wednesday, natural activity is generally not expected but is possible on steep south-facing slopes if the sun comes out. Human-triggering of the storm slab remains possible, especially on steep slopes and wind loaded features in the alpine.

40-60cm of rapidly settling storm snow sits over the late-Jan weak layer at higher elevations. Rain has soaked the snow surface up to around 2000m and moist snow is reported to at least 2200m. Overnight cooling may be forming a surface crust at some elevations. Strong SW winds had formed wind slabs in exposed leeward terrain features. The storm slab sits on an old rain crust at lower elevations, variable surface hoar, and/or wind affected surfaces at higher elevations. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 50-80cm and has been very reactive in some areas. The mid-December weak layer is down around 1m but its reactivity has been isolated recently. The mid-November weak layer of crusts and facets can still be found near the bottom of the snowpack. It has generally been unreactive but one explosive triggered avalanche occurred on it recently in a reloaded area that had slide previously.