Forecasts are based on limited observations. You need to be the detective. Dig down, test weak layers and keep an eye on rising temperatures throughout the weekend.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
High pressure will dominate though the forecast period. This will bring warming temperatures, rising freezing levels and temperature inversions. Some forecasts suggest alpine temperatures could rise as high as 5 degrees celsius. Ridgetop winds will be light from the West and no significant precipitation is expected.
Avalanche Summary
Earlier this week a widespread avalanche cycle occurred from all aspects up to size 3.5, failing on the early season crust. Recently, slab avalanches up to size 2 have been easily rider triggered and some have failed in depth hoar at the base of the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
The average snowpack depths at upper elevations are near a metre or more. The recent storm snow seems to be settling, but wind slab problems do exist. A bigger concern deeper in the snowpack is a melt-freeze / rain crust that formed early October. This is generally found from 70-150 cm down, with facetted (sugary) crystals above and below that are bonded poorly. The crust seems to be widespread through the region, however on northerly aspects it may be more predominant and allow for wider propagations and bigger avalanches, especially in places that have smooth ground cover (glacier ice, grassy slopes, rock slabs etc.).The snowpack is still young, thin and highly variable.
swerner,
Avalanche Canada
