Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Overnight Monday: Heavy snowfall, especially for the southern part of the region. Up to 25-30cm is possible. Strong to extreme south-westerly winds. Freezing level around 1100 m. Tuesday: Heavy snowfall will continue in the morning but become lighter in the afternoon. Winds should also start to diminish. Freezing level should fall slightly. Wednesday: There may be a lull between storms, although snowfall is expected to start up again later in the day.Thursday: Another frontal system arrives in this region, bringing further heavy snowfall, strong south-westerly winds. Freezing level around 1200m.

On Monday, several size 2-2.5 slabs released naturally (likely from wind-loading), which are suspected to have failed on the mid-February persistent weakness. A helicopter remotely triggered a size 1.5 slab, part of which stepped down to basal facets. A skier was also swept over a cliff in a size 1 slab which failed on the mid-Feb layer. On Sunday, a group of skiers triggered a size 3.5 slab 900m wide and 80-140cm deep on a north aspect in the southern Purcells. Late last week, large (size 2.5-3.5) human and explosive-triggered slabs were reported on all aspects, with crowns 40-120cm deep.

Up to half a metre of recent storm snow, driven into wind slabs by moderate to strong southerly winds, overlies moist snow at low elevations or old hard wind slabs in the alpine. The early February surface hoar, about 1-1.6m deep, remains a key concern. Storm slabs, wind slabs or a light load can trigger surprisingly destructive avalanches on this layer. Basal facets have only been reactive on steep, shallow, and rocky slopes, but operators continue to monitor this layer.