Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
The next storm is on the way but in the meantime, decent snow can still be found on northerly, wind sheltered aspects.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Increasing cloud, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing level valley bottom.
Monday: Flurries, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing level 800-1000 m.
Tuesday: 5-10 cm new snow, moderate southwest wind, freezing level 800-1000 m.
Wednesday: 10-15 cm new snow, light west wind, freezing level 500-1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
No avalanche activity reported since the warmup on Wednesday and Saturday.
Our eyes and ears in the mountains are limited this winter due to fewer professional observations. If you go out in the mountains, please share your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). Photos are especially helpful! Thank you so much for all the great MINs submitted so far!Â
Snowpack Summary
A melt-freeze crust exists on steep solar aspects at treeline and above. On shadier aspects, alpine surfaces are predominantly wind affected, with soft snow still to be found in at lower elevations. Widespread growth of large surface hoar crystals and surface faceting have been reported. These types of crystals (crust, hoar, facets) that develop on the surface as it sits exposed during prolonged periods of high pressure like this often become a problem once buried by the next snowfall.
The lower snowpack is characterized by a couple of crusts, the most notable of which is sitting near the base of the snowpack, likely surrounded by a weak layer of sugary facets. It is most likely to be reactive to human triggers on south facing slopes and in shallow, rocky areas in the alpine.
Terrain and Travel
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
- Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
So here's the story... A crust sits near the base of the snowpack.
On the one hand, there hasn't been any associated avalanche activity in weeks.
On the other hand, it's surrounded by weak crystals and still producing hard results in snowpack tests.
Although we don't think it presents an avalanche problem under the current conditions, we're reluctant to throw it out altogether, especially with new snow on the horizon. If it were to rear its head, it would most likely be in shallow, rocky areas in the alpine.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5