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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2022–Mar 16th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Storm slabs have been sensitive to human triggering the last few days, especially on unsupported rolls at all elevations.

Time and cooler weather will help promote the bonding of this new snow load.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy, isolated flurries, and freezing levels hovering between 800-1400m the next few days.

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -9*C, FZL 800m, mod-gusting strong SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, trace, Alp high -8*C, FZL 1300m, light/mod SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 7cm, Alp high -6*C, FZL 1400m, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

~55cm of storm snow has buried the March 11 crust (up to 1500m on all aspects, up to treeline on solar aspects). The March 7 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~65cm, the Feb 26 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~80cm, and the Feb 15 surface hoar is down 100-140cm and decomposing. Mild temps are promoting low elevation storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery avalanche control in the highway corridor produced numerous avalanches, average sz 3, up to sz 3.5-4. Many results reached mid to end of fans in valley bottom.

On Monday, a Parks field team, along with several guided and recreational parties, reported easy triggering of the storm slab at all elevations on unsupported rolls.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Mild temps, steady flurries, and mod SW winds have formed storm slabs at all elevations. Be wary of convex rolls, ridge crests, and open cross-loaded slopes where it may be easier to trigger the storm slab.

  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

In steep sheltered terrain, human-triggered sluffs are running within the storm snow, gathering mass as they accelerate down slope. At lower elevations, these loose avalanches are running on a firm crust and entraining most of the new storm snow.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2