Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Tuesday night: Cloudy with possible isolated flurries and trace of new snow. Light southwest winds.Wednesday: Cloudy with increasing flurries bringing an uncertain 5-10 cm by end of day, continuing overnight. Moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -6.Thursday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing an uncertain 10-30 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds, increasing overnight. Alpine high temperatures reaching -3 as freezing levels rise to 1500 metres.Friday: Mainly cloudy with diminishing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow by end of day. Moderate west winds easing to light. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels dropping from 1500 metres to valley bottom in the evening.

Monday's reports have shown a steep decline in storm slab activity and a transition to mainly smaller ski cut wind slabs. Reports from Saturday and Sunday show an active couple of days for avalanches, with numerous, small (size 1) to large (size 2.5) storm slab avalanches occurring both naturally and with ski cutting and skier traffic. Activity was focused for the most part in steep, unsupported terrain on all aspects. One notable outlier was a large (size 2.5) persistent slab release that was skier triggered below ridgecrest on a southwest aspect in the Connaught Creek area in Glacier National Park.Reports from before the storm showed a steady declining trend in persistent slab avalanche activity. On Wednesday, reported persistent slab activity was limited to a size 2 deep release triggered by a skier in the far southwest of the region as they entered an open glade below a treed ridge on a southeast aspect at 2200 metres. Our recent storm loading and storm slab activity has failed to produce consistent reports of avalanches stepping down to this layer, suggesting that it may finally have reached dormancy.

Saturday's storm brought about 25-35 cm of new snow on the surface, with some isolated areas receiving up to 50 cm. Winds during and since the storm drove fairly aggressive wind slab development on most aspects at higher elevations. Outside of wind loaded areas, the new snow is showing good signs of bonding well to the old snow interface, which appears for the most part to be free of any weak surface hoar crystals. Below this interface, 10 to 20 cm of older low density snow sits above old wind slabs and more isolated small surface hoar.Avalanche activity on the 70-130 cm deep weak layer that formed during the dry spell in early December has greatly diminished over the last week. This aspect-dependant mix of facets, surface hoar, and sun crust is believed to be trending toward a dormant state after the loading test brought by Saturday's storm failed to produce consistent reports of avalanches 'stepping down'. A heavy trigger might still coax reactivity out of steep north and east facing slopes between 1900-2300 m or a steep south-facing slope in the alpine.The lower snowpack is generally strong and settled, with a crust that formed in late October near the bottom of the snowpack.