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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 16th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

UPDATED WEDNESDAY MORNING

Warm temperatures are bringing much of the precipitation from this storm as rain in eastern areas of the park, which could trigger large natural avalanches. Avoid overhead hazard, and make conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: 20-30cm of snow by Wednesday morning with strong to extreme SW winds. Freezing levels will likely peak around 2000m early in they morning before dropping to valley bottom by the afternoon.

Thursday: Clear skies, winds easing off and switching to N. Freezing levels at valley bottom

Friday: Mainly cloudy with strong W winds, alpine high -6

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find at least 30cm of new snow redistributed by strong SW winds, with wet snow freezing into a crust near the surface below 2000m. Upper elevations are heavily wind affected, and new windslabs will be found in lee areas. The Dec 9th crust can be found down 70-100cm at Cameron Lake. Areas east of the divide hold a thin & faceted snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed as of Tuesday afternoon, but the brunt of the storm is expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow combined with strong winds will form reactive slabs. As the wind switches to northerly on Thursday, we will see reverse loading with wind slabs forming outside of usual lee features.

  • Watch for stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs on exposed lee slopes and open areas at all elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Rain at upper elevations could trigger deeper weak layers on Wednesday morning especially in Eastern areas of the park. As freezing levels drop they could still be triggered by cornice fall or a smaller avalanche stepping down.

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the persistent slab.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3