Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 23rd, 2015–Jan 24th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche hazard will increase with the arrival of new precipitation and rising temperatures.

Weather Forecast

A moisture laden pacific system is moving inland.  For today, expect up to 10cm of accumulation with moderate SW winds. Precipitation intensity increases tonight with 22mm expected by Saturday morning.  Light snow continues throughout Saturday. The next main pulse arrives Sat evening with up to 30 mm by Sunday. Freezing levels to 1900m for Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

A 60cm slab sits on the Jan 15 surface hoar. It will be deeper in lee features where loaded by south winds. The Jan 15 was widespread, largest at treeline, and on solar aspects sits on a sun crust. Snowpack stability tests indicate it is likely to be triggered and propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar is down 100-150cm.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday artillery control triggered over 30 size 2 to 3.5 avalanches from all aspects between 17-2700m. Notables were size 3.5's from the W face of Cheops and off Mt Tupper that ran into the creeks. Human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 continue to occur in the region. Remote triggering from up to 300m has been reported.

Confidence

Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A 60cm+ thick cohesive slab now overlies a touchy surface hoar layer. Tests indicate that it may be triggered by human loads and likely to propagate widely as the slab stiffens. Avalanches have been remotely triggered from up to 300m away.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

A surface hoar layer, down 1-1.5m, that was buried in mid December continues to be reactive. Avalanche control had a few avalanches stepping down to this layer, even in areas where it had been previously controlled. The new load may wake it up again.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 4