Tricky conditions warrant a conservative approach. A little warming, precipitation and/or wind-loading could be all we need to awaken a volatile persistent slab, especially at treeline.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Increasing cloudiness, with flurries possible. A layer of warm air is expected between 2000-2500m, while it remains cold in the valleys. Light variable winds.Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Moderate southwesterly winds.Saturday: Light snow (5-10 cm). Light to moderate westerly winds.More details can be found in the
Mountain Weather Forecast.
Avalanche Summary
There have been a several recent reports of remote-triggered (triggered from a distance) and naturally triggered persistent slab avalanches to size 2 on all aspects between 1500-2100m. Several loose dry and a few solar-triggered loose wet avalanches have also been reported. Reactivity of the persistent slab is likely to increase with warmer temperatures as the upper snow becomes denser.
Snowpack Summary
Warming is starting to turn dry powder into a cohesive slab in some areas. The main troublemaker in the snowpack at the moment is a layer of feathery surface hoar down 50-70 cm, buried in mid-December. In places this interface exists as a crust/facet combo. It is most prevalent around treeline, but it may be more widespread in some locations. A little more warming, precipitation and/or wind-loading could be all that is needed to turn powder into an easy-to-trigger slab above this touchy interface. It's tricky to predict and even professionals are scratching their heads a bit about exactly when and where this beast will wake up. Its a good time for conservative decision-making.Deeper in the snowpack (about 100-140 cm down), a rain crust from November remains in the back of our minds, but it is considered dormant for now. If you have any recent observations, please share them through the
Mountain Information Network.
pgoddard,
Avalanche Canada
