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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2018–Feb 3rd, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The likelihood of natural avalanches will increase today with incoming snowfall and steady winds.

Weather Forecast

Clashing frontal systems will deliver 13cm of snow to Rogers Pass today and 15 cm of snow tonight. Today's ridge winds are SW 25-45 km/hr, with an alpine high of -4.0 and freezing levels climbing to 1400m. A slight break in precipitation is expected for Saturday as strong winds back to the NW. Another 9cm of snow is expected for Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

8cm of new snow overnight bringing this week's total to 93cm at 1900m. Storm snow is settling into a soft slab and is more cohesive along ridge lines and lee features from ongoing SW winds. There are weak, poorly bonded interfaces in the upper 50cm of the storm snow. Several persistent surface hoar layers from January are buried over 100cm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday. An Avalanche Canada MIN report has an excellent description and photos of a large avalanche that occurred in Loop Brook during Monday's widespread natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Ongoing heavy snowfall has created a storm slab. Wind transport added to the load on lee slopes at and above treeline. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper persistent weak layers.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Natural avalanche activity will increase today with forecasted new snow and ongoing winds. The Jan 16th, 4th and Dec 15th surface hoar layers are buried deep, but avalanches in the storm snow can certainly step down and trigger these weak interfaces.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5