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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 25th, 2015–Mar 26th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected Thursday near and above treeline mainly due to loose wet avalanches that will have the ability to start in the surface layers and entrain significant amounts of snow received earlier this week. Stay conservative with your terrain selection Thursday. 

Detailed Forecast

Partly sunny skies Thursday along with high freezing levels will maintain the threat of loose wet avalanches Thursday, especially on solar slopes above treeline that did not naturally avalanche Wednesday.

Loose wet avalanches Thursday will have the ability to start in the surface layers and entrain significant amounts of snow received earlier this week. Larger avalanches will be possible above treeline where more recent snowfall has been received.  Avoid steeper slopes if you are sinking in more than a few inches, and be aware the even small loose wet avalanches are powerful and can push you into unintended terrain features.  

Fresh cornices along ridgelines have likely been weakened and should become susceptible to failure Thursday with warming and potential sunshine. Make sure to give them a wide berth, and be aware of corniced slopes above you. 

Lingering wind slab is possible above treeline on lee aspects especially above Wednesday's snow line.    

High avalanche danger is forecast for the southwest Cascades were more recent snow/water has been received and sunnier skies are expected. 

Less recent snow and ample terrain anchors may limit the avalanche danger below treeline. Many areas at the lowest elevations do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Snowpack Discussion

Winter has been making a comeback in the PNW...now that it's technically spring. The storm last weekend caused 1-2 feet of snow above treeline in the Mt Baker area. At the NWAC station at the base of the Mt Baker Ski Area there was about 8 inches of snowfall and there was up to a few inches elsewhere along the west slopes. On Sunday high on Heliotrope Ridge, a skier triggered and was partially buried by a 1-1.5 foot storm or wind slab avalanche.

A low pressure system moved east over the Mt Hood area Monday night/Tuesday morning and brought a taste of winter to the Cascades. New snow amounts west of the crest generally ranged from 3-5 inches from Baker to Snoqualmie and from 8-12 inches from Crystal to Mt Hood. Small to large natural and skier triggered loose wet and dry avalanches were reported in the Alpental (TAY report), Crystal and Chinook backcountry Tuesday, the type depending on the time of day and aspect. Larger loose avalanches entrained snowfall from earlier in the week, and carried one skier in Powder Bowl at (closed) Crystal Mt.  NWAC observer Dallas Glass observed a remotely triggered storm slab near treeline above Paradise releasing within sensitive storm layers.

Steady warming along with moderate precipitation brought more sensitive conditions to the Paradise backcountry again Thursday. Dallas reported small natural wind slabs on lee NE aspects near treeline in the morning transitioning to wet avalanche concerns with a switch to rain mid-day. Crystal and Chinook received far less loading, and professionals using explosives observed only localized loose and generally small avalanches. No reports were received from areas further north Wednesday.  

Snowpack problems west of the crest for the time being should be in the upper or surface layers. The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

 

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

 

A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.

Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1