Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 21st, 2014 8:22AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

The skiing is great, but don't be fooled by the lack of natural avalanches. The hazard is still out there, The skiing in low angle terrain is good too! Check out the latest Forecasters Blog

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

A cool unstable northwesterly flow will dominate the weather pattern for the next few days. a Pacific weather system will arrive on the coast late on Friday, then cold arctic air will move into the region. The forecast models disagree on timing and precipitation for this weather systemFriday nIght: Freezing level at valley bottom, with the possibility of light to locally moderate precipitation, ridge top winds gusting to 35Km/h.Saturday: Freezing level around 100m, no precipitation in the forecast, sunny,..(Yay!), ridge top winds from the north around 25 Km/h.Sunday: Cold clear weather, freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds from the NE to around 30 Km/h.Monday: Freezing level at valley bottom, light ridge top winds, possible alpine temperature inversion.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of large natural avalanches have diminished recently, but there have been a number of skier accidental, skier controlled and skier remote avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Parts of the forecast region have received considerable snow in the past 10 days, now settling into a slab with a typical thickness of anywhere from 60-90cm. This storm slab overlies a variety of facets, surface hoar, crusts, hard wind pressed snow, or any combination of these. Widespread whumpfing, cracking, natural avalanche activity and remote triggering at all elevations are a strong indication of poor bond between the new snow and these old surfaces. Snowpack tests show easy, sudden collapse within the storm slab. This storm slab problem will be with us for a long time as it is sitting on a large weak layer . Even when the ``whumpfing``stops,..it will still be dangerous, with potential for large, destructive avalanches as the slab settles and gets denser..

Problems

Storm Slabs

Caution around steep terrain and big features as we transition into a persistent slab problem. It may look like the problem is going away, but it isn't. Conservative terrain choices and objectives will be needed for the next few weeks.

Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequences even if skiing in the trees>Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Feb 22nd, 2014 2:00PM